Posts Tagged ‘hedge funds’
How To Place Stop Loss?
Currency prices in the forex markets are always jumping up and down. Forex markets are volatile most of the time. In the short term, you will only find noise in the intra day forex market. This makes it difficult for new day traders to know how to put a stop loss. Most of the time, prices in forex markets jump 10-20 pips for no apparent reason.
The noise in the intraday market keeps on frustrating new day traders. They constantly find their stop losses being tripped even when the rates are going in the anticipated direction.
A static 10-20 pip stop loss is an arbitrary choice many traders make. Many new traders also use Trailing Stop Loss. Place your trailing stop loss too close and you will find your stop hit too early. Place it too far and you will have to forgo potential profits if the price retraces.
Many professional forex traders do use stop loss but mostly place it on their computers hiding them from their brokers. Best way to place a stop loss is using a dynamic level.
Stop hunting is something the brokers are continuously doing. If a broker finds many stop losses at a particular price level on his price feed; he can easily trip them using a momentary blip in the price. You cant even complain. The momentary spike happened due to a sudden large transaction in the market.
Do you know this many professional forex traders only use a stop loss in their mind. They plan entry/exit for each position. Keep on monitoring it changing, the stop loss in their mind as the rate fluctuates. When they reach the desired outcome, they close the position. With experience, you will also learn to do the same.
Moving Averages, Bollinger Bands, SARs etc can be easily used as dynamic stop losses by you. It is a good way to manage your risk while letting the currency markets to do what it wants.
The more experience you will develop as a forex trader the more you are going to understand that placing fixed stop losses actually hurts more. Using fixed stop losses can hurt you more emotionally, psychologically and profit wise than help you.
You should not try to trade before or after a major economic news release. You should not try to place stop loss close to or at round numbers. And you should also not try to trade in times of thin liquidity in the currency markets.
You should understand that your broker can and will use stop hunting to take out your positions using noise in the market as an excuse. Forex trading and casinos have many things in common. You should learn how to beat the markets and the brokers only then you will become a successful forex trader.
Intel’s Shares Look Appealing When Examined Quantitatively
A Pullback to approximately 15.15/share during “after-hour” trading on 4/14/09 is quantitatively appealing in establishing a long position on Intel (INTC).
The close of 16.01 places INTC on a bullish stance, according to the following technical indicators:
A. Composite Indicator– Which is a Trend Spotter (TM)
B. Short term Indicators– The 10-8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel, 20 Day Moving Average Versus Price, 20-50 Day MACD Oscillator, and 20 Day Bollinger Bands suggest a buy. The 20 Day Average Volume is 66859422.
C. Medium Term Indicators– The 50 Day Moving Average versus Price, 20-100 Day MACD Oscillator, and 50 Day Parabolic Time/Price suggest a buy. The 50-Day Average Volume 70653359.
D. Long Term Indicators– The 100 Day Moving Average versus Price, and 50-100 Day MACD Oscillator suggest a buy. 100-Day Average Volume – 68089414.
On 4/15/09, assuming the shares commence trading at 15.15, the May strike 15 calls would open the trade at approximately .76/contract. This would give the new shareholder .61/contract in intrinsic time value till option expiraton, assuming the calls are written. Moreover, the shareholder has a downside protection to 14.54/share which is the March 17 2009 pivatol (infliction) point. At 14.53/share, the May Strike 14 calls would probably trade between .97 to 1.00/contract, offering the accumulation of new shares a juicy .44 to .47/contract in intinsic time value and a downside protection to 13.56– which is a solid 5 month support level. At 13.56/share, the May Strike 13 would bid .88 to .90/contract giving the investor .32/contract in time value and a downside protection to 12.68.
The dollar-cost-average pyramid hedged with may calls stated above provide roughly a 72% downside protection against the underlying shares, but only 48% when hedged with put options with similar strikes.