Insurance and Credit

Support and resistance levels are used by investors and speculators to determine how far they believe a currency pair will move between the two levels. This also tells them at what points the price action may turn around due to the buying or selling pressure and start moving in the opposite direction.

But sometimes, the markets change direction due to a fundamental factor. The market change of direction is strong enough to cause a currency pair to break through a previously established support and resistance level. When a previous support and resistance level is broken by the markets, new levels are established. However, the broken levels may still have some influence on the market in the future.

Sometimes there are attempted breakouts. This is also known as False Breakouts. It will become obvious to you that prices do not always stop at exactly the same points each time. So if you are going to set up stringent requirements for your support and resistance levels, those levels may not hold up. You would fake yourself out of a lot of valid price movements.

Even when you take all the precautions, you may fall victim to a false breakout. Now, you will ask how I can tell a false breakout from a true one and when the price has truly broken through support and resistance in a new direction.

There are primarily two methods that you can use to filter out a false breakout with a true breakout. These two methods are setting price-amplitude benchmarks and identifying role reversals.

Setting price amplitude benchmarks involves looking at a chart to determine if you can identify and know when the price action momentarily broke through the prevailing support and resistance level before pulling back and once again returning to the previous level.

The dips through the predetermined levels are usually short lived. You can draw a secondary support and resistance lines which you can then utilize as your price-amplitude benchmarks.

A price amplitude benchmark will tell you if the price has broken through the predetermined level but did not breakthrough the benchmark; you dont have to worry about a change in the trend direction. However, if the price had enough momentum behind it to breach the benchmark, it can continue in the new direction.

Identifying role reversals method involves watching the price action to see if support levels turn into resistance levels and resistance levels turn into support levels. Often, you will see the price action bounce off a level of resistance, then turn around and start heading lower and bounce off the previous resistance level.

When a resistance level is broken, that same level will turn into a support level. Conversely when a support level is broken, that same level will turn into a resistance level. You should use both the benchmark and the role reversal confirmations in your trading analysis to screen out false breakout from a true breakout.

The associated risks of using a margin account for online forex trading percentage wise could be said to measure up to the rewards. It is key to know what you are doing when you take these risks. When any potential for making large profits is increased the risks also increase. What the foreign exchange trader has to be careful of is not losing his margin account deposit.

If your margin account stands at a leverage ratio of 100:1 or 1% on a lot unit of $100 000, even a one cent move of a currency in the wrong direction will see this deposit completely wiped out. Essentially this means you lose $1 000!There are methods and safeguards in place that will limit these losses, for instance “stop loss orders”. These will automatically close your position if the currency drops below a certain point. They will allow traders to limit losses, while still allowing potential profit to be earned.

One risk which is often overlooked is the fact that your broker may well simply close your transactions if it appears as though your losses are approaching the balance you have in your margin account. Even though you are aware of a down trend and are riding it out, while you expect a market reversal. You may well find that you have to replenish your margin account or your position will be closed. If this should happen, you will actually lose all the money in your margin.

The greatest risk to your deposit on a currency lot in a margin account is often overlooked. This is that the broker you have lodged your deposit with, may close your position if the losses look set to wipe out your deposit balance. You might have been aware of the downward trend and may have been awaiting a turnaround but if your broker is not aware of this and he closes your position you lose the deposit money in your margin.

As we said previously, there are both large risks and large rewards in online forex trading. Professional people are seeing the benefit in trading and are leaving traditional professions to become traders. They need to understand that it is vital to know what they are doing in order to ensure success. Stop loss orders are not the only way to protect your investment in this market. Knowledge is vital! It is important to know how to read market trends and traits, and understand how both profits and losses are made.

As a forex trader, you should be aware of the role played by the interest rate changes in the general economic and investment climate. You should know that interest rates are an essential part of investment decisions and can drive currency markets as well as the stock and commodities markets in either direction. After the unemployment figures, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions are the second largest currency market moving release.

The impact of the interest rate changes not only have short term consequences but also have long term impact on the currency markets. One Central Banks decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interconnected forex markets.

In currency trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the counter currency interest rate. In the pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the US Dollar interest rate.

Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable for you as a forex trader. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the interest rate changes can be crucial to the currency pair movements.

The reason why it is profitable is that international investors like hedge funds, big banks and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.

Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currency prices. London Inter Bank Offer Rate and the 10 year government bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency movements.

Lets take an example, suppose the Australian 10-year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10-year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread in this case would be 350 basis points in favor of the Australian Dollar.

Suppose the Australian government raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The 10 year Australian government bond yield would also appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread is 375 basis points in favor of AUD. The AUD will also be expected to appreciate against USD.

The general rule of thumb used by professional traders is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against the other currency in the pair. This is important information for you as a trader. Interest rate data is available on Bloomberg. Keep track of the currencies in the currency pairs that you trade with that data.