Insurance and Credit

Many traders view stock options as only a short term trading strategy. The idea of a highly leveraged bet with the potential to make big bucks quickly appeals to the risk taker inside all of us. Just like a card counting black-jack player, options can be used to make consistent short term gains, provided the player is careful, and knows what they’re doing. But while stock options are usually employed solely by that clique of high-risk, high-reward traders, they actually have enormous benefits that tend to go unnoticed by many a long term investor.

The stock option strategy I’m about to reveal isnt often used. Indeed, I’ve only briefly heard mention of them on obscure websites, and even then, not in enough detail to give an example. So here it is, what I believe may be the best kept secret from long term investors on wall street. The stock option strategy for the long term investor.

Its the vertical option spread, using leap options. How this investment works is you buy one option, while simultaneously selling another option for the same month, but at a different strike price. While XYZ is often my generic ticker, I will use a real company in this case. Keep in mind, this is NOT a recommendation. In fact, it would probably be a terrible idea to invest in the example I’m about to give. Its just an example. Yet to get realistic prices for this strategy, it may be helpful to use a real stock.

note:I wrote this part of the article about a short time ago, prices may not be 100% current. So GE is currently trading at 10.41 per share. In this example, let us talk the January 2011 options, giving GE a large amount of time to go the way we think it will. So if you thought GE was an excellent long term buy, it would be reasonable to think it’s going to at least $20 per share by that point. By January 2011, consensus is believe the recession to be over, and that single development alone should lead to a substantially higher stock price.

To do a vertical spread, you have to buy one option, and sell another one. Giving our price target of at least $20, and given the current price, 10.41, I would buy the 12.50 strike call option, and sell the 17.50 strike call option. The 12.50 option can be bought for 2.71 at the moment, while the 17.50 can be sold for 1.40, giving us an total cost of 1.31 per share for the vertical spread.

Now lets analyze this trade for a second. If General Electric is trading under 12.50 on the January 2011 expiration, both options expire worthless, and the 1.31 per option spread invested is gone. On the other hand, if General Electric is trading above 17.50, then the 12.50 option will be worth exactly $5.00 more then the 17.50 option, and so the position is worth $5.00 per share. If its between 12.50 and 17.50, the call we sold expires worthless, while the call we bought will have value equal to the difference between the stock price and the strike price; 12.50 in this case. How do you calculate the break even? Well we paid 1.31 for the vertical spread, so if its exactly 1.31 higher then 12.50 (13.81), then well be at break even if the stock is at that point.

That gives us an amazing return of 281% if GE is above 17.50, for an annualized return of 107% (holding period is 22 months). Due to the high potential for risk – a complete loss of investment if GE is below 12.50 in Jan 2011, you shouldn’t put more then you’re willing to risk in the trade. Definitely a speculative play. Yet with how much time there is, it is a much safer bet then short term options, and significantly more profitable then just buying the shares.

So now that the basic idea is out of the way, what are some examples of vertical spreads I would consider? I’m a strong believer in investing in emerging markets, so I am long term bullish on EEM (IShares MSCI Emerging Markets Investment Index). The January 2011 25-30 vertical on EEM is only going for about $1.88 at the moment, with EEM trading at 25.30 so I think that would be a superb investment. Above 30 it would be worth $5 at expiration, while below 25 it would be worthless. Unless the economy further deteriorates, I can’t imagine that occurring.

Along the same lines, I expect FXI (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index) to go up. The “China miracle” isn’t over, merely in a subdued state due to temporarily reduced demand. The 30-35 vertical Jan 11 vertical would be worth $5 at expiration if FXI is above 35, which from its current price of 28.51, is perfectly within reason. That vertical spread currently has a $2 price, so that would be an even 150% return from now until January 2011.

A much more controversial play would be Bank of America. While the trader in me screams to short the stock, I foresee it being far more valuable then it currently is a couple years down the road. The simple reason is that yes; financial stocks have been hammered by the current collapse. Yes, some banking companies have went bankrupt, or have been on the verge of bankruptcy. Is the financial system going to completely collapse? No. Are out of control bank runs going to drive them out of business? No. Are people going to want to borrow money again after this recession ends? YES! Is pent up demand in housing going to cause a rush to buy houses at prices not seen in a decade? YES! Are banks going to profit from this? Most DEFINITELY. If BAC is above $10 at the January 2011 expiration, the 7.50-10 vertical for Jan 2011 would be worth 2.50, while only costing about $0.65. That would give a 286% return, or 108% annualized. The risk of course, is that BAC goes bankrupt, or BAC stays under the $7.50 per share mark past January 2011. In either case, you would lose your investment. Yet with prices as low as they are now, there isn’t a high chance of that scenario unfolding.

For the vast majority of people, the financial markets are not the place to get rich quick. While some short term traders will have tremendous success with these option strategies, long term investors can use these same strategies while focusing on the longer term, to achieve gains vastly exceeding those of the regular stock market, while limiting risk.

It has been consistently demonstrated that your investment returns aren’t so much a function of what stocks your invested in, but what sectors/asset classes your invested in. In the dot com boom, it didn’t matter what dot com stock you invested in, if you were invested in dot com companies, you probably did alright. During the dot com bust, it wasn’t just a couple select companies that went down, it was just about all of them. Because of this tendency for similar stocks to move together, it is much more productive to be able to simply buy ” or short – a type of stock, then try and nail the exact right company. But how can you gain exposure to a sector without taking unnecessary risk based on the company?

The answer lies in a little tool known as the ETF. ETF stands for Exchange Traded fund. Think of it as a mutual fund that isn’t actively managed, focuses on a certain area, and can be traded like a stock without incurring extra penalties. Each ETF holds a number of companies, similar to a mutual fund, and its listed price is simply the overall value of the companies it holds.

Each ETF is designed to mimic an investment in a certain industry, region, or type of stock. Some examples of ETFs are the XLI, XLU, and EWC. These ETFs grant an investor exposure to the industrial sector of the S&P 500, the utilities sector of the S&P 500, and the entire Canadian stock market, respectively. Similarly, one who simply wanted to match the S&P 500 indexs returns could just invest in the SPY.

Yet if ETFs are so similar to mutual funds, why not just use a mutual fund. There really are a couple reasons to do so. First off, mutual funds have a history of underperforming the stock market as a whole after fees are included. This makes simple index investing, through an ETF representing a large basket of stocks, such as the SPY, an extremely effective way of matching the markets returns with nearly no cost. There are also slight tax advantages with ETFs compared to mutual funds. Mutual funds have to pay capital gains tax whenever they sell one of their holdings, and whenever they have a large wave of redemptions, they have to sell their positions to come up with the money. This leads to excess fees, some of which get passed on to the remaining investors.

Perhaps the biggest consideration is the simple convenience of owning ETFs when compared to mutual funds. They can be bought and sold (or shorted) any time during the trading day, using the same order types available to normal stocks. Free from redemption fees, the only deterrent from actively trading an ETF is belief in the efficient market hypothesis, and the standard commission costs from buying and selling stocks

Another important consideration is that most of the more liquid ETFs are optionable. This means that option-savvy investors can harness the power of stock options to change the risk-reward profile of their positions, and risk-conscious investors can use stratagems such as the covered call and protective put to protect their investment.

One thing to note is that not all ETFs are created equal. While some simply hold a basket of stocks and use those to keep the ETFs value near the benchmark, many use other, more exotic strategies, with various degrees of success. QLD for instance, aims to gain roughly twice the daily returns of the Nasdaq composite index, and is usually fairly consistent when doing this. Another similar instrument is the ETN, which is actually a debt based instrument. While ETNs also aims to gain returns based on a given benchmark, there price is also sensitive to changes in the debt rating of the issuer, and this should be considered when investing in them.

ETFs are a powerful tool for both the intelligent investor, and the active trader. Their ability to hone in and diversify within a given industry, or region of the world is invaluable when riding the larger megatrends that happen periodically in investment. Similarly, the ability to trade them just like a stock, using techniques such as shorting, options, and the various order types make them an invaluable asset for the active trader. For those believing the efficient market hypothesis, they even allow passive index investing at a cost far below that of a mutual fund.