Insurance and Credit

As a forex trader, you should be aware of the role played by the interest rate changes in the general economic and investment climate. You should know that interest rates are an essential part of investment decisions and can drive currency markets as well as the stock and commodities markets in either direction. After the unemployment figures, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions are the second largest currency market moving release.

The impact of the interest rate changes not only have short term consequences but also have long term impact on the currency markets. One Central Banks decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interconnected forex markets.

In currency trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the counter currency interest rate. In the pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the US Dollar interest rate.

Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable for you as a forex trader. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the interest rate changes can be crucial to the currency pair movements.

The reason why it is profitable is that international investors like hedge funds, big banks and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.

Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currency prices. London Inter Bank Offer Rate and the 10 year government bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency movements.

Lets take an example, suppose the Australian 10-year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10-year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread in this case would be 350 basis points in favor of the Australian Dollar.

Suppose the Australian government raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The 10 year Australian government bond yield would also appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread is 375 basis points in favor of AUD. The AUD will also be expected to appreciate against USD.

The general rule of thumb used by professional traders is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against the other currency in the pair. This is important information for you as a trader. Interest rate data is available on Bloomberg. Keep track of the currencies in the currency pairs that you trade with that data.

Today mutual funds are still very popular as investments, so can you be sure you know how do mutual funds work? In bad economic times like these, mutual funds may still be good investments, but only if you understand the ins and outs of investing in them.

Investing in mutual funds has grown over the last few decades, as billions of retirement dollars have been invested in the market. Mutual funds have over time, and generally speaking, offered a way to diversify your portfolio, lower risk, and hopefully return some growth by the time one retires.

Mutual Funds have a special structural status since they are owned by all of the investors together. Each investor owns a proportional share of the underlying investments. When investors buy shares, their money is used by the fund managers to purchase shares in investment vehicles, like stocks and bonds, that meet the objectives of the funds.

The perception has been that since mutual funds are managed by talented professionals, and that they invest in stocks that have historically gone up, that they are pretty much hands off investments. That is far from the truth. Depending on the type of mutual fund, the funds may be invested in vehicles that the average person is not aware of. For example, they may mirror index funds, but are under no obligation to purchase only stocks within that index.

In this market, many investors lost more than they thought they would, based on the expectations they were given when they invested in the market. Any time you invest in the market, no matter the vehicle, you need to know how mutual funds work in order to continually revise your investments to match your financial strategy. We can’t believe any more than all we need to do is buy the “right” mutual funds and wait for 20 years.

When you are about to choose a mutual fund to invest in, start with reviewing your personal financial plan and decide which funds fit in with your overall wealth plan. Review for each fund the investments within the fund, and look beyond the fund’s returns. Even with returns down for most funds right now, there are some, like bond or balanced funds, that can offer decent returns. You need to know more than ever what you are investing in, and learn to invest with an eye toward market volatility.

You can compare the fund’s investments against those in other funds. Know what the stocks and bonds are that the fund is investing in, and don’t just go by the overarching type fo fund, whether it’s a growth fund, value fund, and so on. Invest with an eye toward where these companies might be in the next few years if our economic climate stays sluggish, or declines. When you learn to invest stock for example it helps you beeter understand how do mutual funds work.

Learning forex trading should not be difficult. With decent understanding of money management rules and a good trading strategy, you should be ready for conquering the forex markets.

Always try to understand the big picture. You should start each trading session by looking at the daily charts and than zooming into 4hr, 1hr, 30min, 15 min etc charts. Forex trading is all about interpreting the past as well as about interpreting the future.

You need to know whether the market is ranging or trending before each trade. You should try to know any long term patterns that have developed by looking at the charts. By taking a general look at the different charts you will develop a feel of how the forex markets are behaving in the short as well as the long term.

You should try to figure out the general direction of the currency markets. You can use candlestick analysis and moving averages to identify long term patterns and reversals.

Bollinger bands applied to 4hr charts can be used to identify the daily trading range. Most of the price action is expected to be within the Bollinger bands. Any moves outside the bands can be viewed as short term abnormalities and ignored.

Do some scenario planning, once you have a general overview of the market. Make sure you know what news is scheduled to be released and what is the expected market reaction.

Understanding the big picture does not mean knowing the whole picture. You should only focus on your favorite pairs. It takes a longtime and effort to understand a currencys behavior, how it reacts to things like oil prices, interest rates etc. So concentrate only on a few pairs in forex trading.

You should always try to take notes and keep a daily trading journal. Start each entry in the trading journal by analyzing the general direction of the markets for that day. What you think how the markets are going to react to different news that is expected to be released that day? What should be your entry and exit for the trade. How many pips you are expecting to make?

After each trade, look at what went wrong and how to avoid it in future trading! In case of a good trade that made you pips, analyze how many pips you could have made more and how to tweak your trading strategy for better results in the future trades.

Keeping these general tips in mind while you are learning forex trading will help you a lot. Never ever trade without stop losses and practice on the demo account for at least three months before starting live trading.