Insurance and Credit

Many forex traders start trading live too soon. They dont have any understanding and learning of good money management rules. As a forex trader, you need to develop a few good money management rules. Practice them on your demo account before starting live trading. By developing your own money management rules you are comfortable with means how much of your money you are willing to risk on one single trade. You also need to determine how many contracts per trade your risk tolerance allows?

The important question is how you can improve your investment results by making small changes to your trading strategies. Proper money management can be the difference between becoming a successful forex trader in the long run or an unsuccessful one who decimates his/her account in a few weeks.

Have you ever played poker? If you have, then rarely you will see good players put all their chips on a single bet. As a poker player, you know by risking only a small portion of your money on a single bet, you can win or lose but be still play the next hand. If you put everything on the table on a single bet, you have to be 100% sure of winning. An impossible thing, you can never be 100% right.

You must know that currency trading is far more complicated than playing poker. You will be dealing with hundreds and hundreds of unknown variables that affect the markets what to talk of only 52 cards. You must understand and implement good money management principles in order to succeed at forex trading.

There are many pitfalls that you will run across while trading. A trader is constantly under the pressure of two emotions; greed and fear. When you win a trade, you become greedy and want to risk more to win big. You want to strike it rich in a few trades. This drives you to take more and more risk.

In case you lose a trade, you will become fearful of risking your money on the next trade. Now, fear will take over and impair your decision making. Fear will make you lose confidence in your judgment and decision making. Lets see how fear and greed can impair your trading results.

Lets suppose you have a run of successful trades. You are feeling overconfident and you are not satisfied by risking only 2% of your account on a single trade. You want to risk more on the trade. The more you have in a trade, the more you will make if you are right. You increase your risk to 5%, you win. You increase it further to 10%, you once again win. You finally decide to put 25% of your equity at risk on a next trade, but misfortune strikes. Your successful run comes to an end. You lose.

Suppose you had a $100,000 trading account and you had foolishly risked 25% or $25,000 on one trade that you desperately wanted to win. Losing $25,000 means you have only $75,000 in your account now after your loss. How much you need to make to get back the original balance of $100,000; you need to make $25,000 again to go back to the original balance. It means you will have to make 25,000/75,000= 33%, so you risked 25% but now you will need to make 33% to get back your original amount.

Many investors once they lose a trade become desperate and try to risk more to recover their original loss. They end up losing more and more and very soon those investors destroy their accounts. Most of them are out of trading forever soon. There are other traders who try to reduce risk even more on making a losing trade; eventually they lose any opportunity for meaningful growth in their accounts.

As a forex trader, you should be aware of the role played by the interest rate changes in the general economic and investment climate. You should know that interest rates are an essential part of investment decisions and can drive currency markets as well as the stock and commodities markets in either direction. After the unemployment figures, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decisions are the second largest currency market moving release.

The impact of the interest rate changes not only have short term consequences but also have long term impact on the currency markets. One Central Banks decision can affect more than a single currency pair in the interconnected forex markets.

In currency trading, an interest rate differential is the difference between the base currency interest rate and the counter currency interest rate. In the pair, EUR/USD, EUR is the base currency and USD is the counter currency. The interest rate differential for the EUR/USD pair will be the difference between the Euro interest rate and the US Dollar interest rate.

Understanding the relationship between the interest rate differentials and the currency pairs can be very profitable for you as a forex trader. In addition to the Central Banks overnight interest rate decisions, expected future overnight rates as well the expected timing for the interest rate changes can be crucial to the currency pair movements.

The reason why it is profitable is that international investors like hedge funds, big banks and institutional investors are yield seekers. They actively keep on shifting funds from the low yield assets to high yield assets.

Interest rate differentials are considered to be the leading indicators for currency prices. London Inter Bank Offer Rate and the 10 year government bond yields are usually used as leading indicators of currency movements.

Lets take an example, suppose the Australian 10-year government bond yield is 5.25%. The US 10-year government bond yield is 1.75%. The yield spread in this case would be 350 basis points in favor of the Australian Dollar.

Suppose the Australian government raised its interest rate by 25 basis points. The 10 year Australian government bond yield would also appreciate to 5.50%. Now, the new yield spread is 375 basis points in favor of AUD. The AUD will also be expected to appreciate against USD.

The general rule of thumb used by professional traders is that when a yield spread increases in favor of a certain currency that currency is expected to appreciate against the other currency in the pair. This is important information for you as a trader. Interest rate data is available on Bloomberg. Keep track of the currencies in the currency pairs that you trade with that data.

Learning forex trading should not be difficult. With decent understanding of money management rules and a good trading strategy, you should be ready for conquering the forex markets.

Always try to understand the big picture. You should start each trading session by looking at the daily charts and than zooming into 4hr, 1hr, 30min, 15 min etc charts. Forex trading is all about interpreting the past as well as about interpreting the future.

You need to know whether the market is ranging or trending before each trade. You should try to know any long term patterns that have developed by looking at the charts. By taking a general look at the different charts you will develop a feel of how the forex markets are behaving in the short as well as the long term.

You should try to figure out the general direction of the currency markets. You can use candlestick analysis and moving averages to identify long term patterns and reversals.

Bollinger bands applied to 4hr charts can be used to identify the daily trading range. Most of the price action is expected to be within the Bollinger bands. Any moves outside the bands can be viewed as short term abnormalities and ignored.

Do some scenario planning, once you have a general overview of the market. Make sure you know what news is scheduled to be released and what is the expected market reaction.

Understanding the big picture does not mean knowing the whole picture. You should only focus on your favorite pairs. It takes a longtime and effort to understand a currencys behavior, how it reacts to things like oil prices, interest rates etc. So concentrate only on a few pairs in forex trading.

You should always try to take notes and keep a daily trading journal. Start each entry in the trading journal by analyzing the general direction of the markets for that day. What you think how the markets are going to react to different news that is expected to be released that day? What should be your entry and exit for the trade. How many pips you are expecting to make?

After each trade, look at what went wrong and how to avoid it in future trading! In case of a good trade that made you pips, analyze how many pips you could have made more and how to tweak your trading strategy for better results in the future trades.

Keeping these general tips in mind while you are learning forex trading will help you a lot. Never ever trade without stop losses and practice on the demo account for at least three months before starting live trading.